According to Hans Moravec of the Robotics Institute of Carnegie Mellon University, by 2020 a $1,000 personal computer will have the raw processing power of a human brain.
… I am not a computer. I am self-aware. There is no evidence that awareness comes from processing power. Yet, this is always asserted by those who claim processing power is material. You are conscious, but you don’t know how. A colony of ants has an emergent intelligence. It is smarter than any individual ant. It is smarter than all the ants put together. You are made of cells which know nothing of you, don’t know they are part of you, and yet you are aware of them. Why do we think computers will be emergent? They are mechanistic in a way I do not think I am.
I’ve often wondered about this. Crickets think also, but that doesn’t make them an advanced alien race. I know my example is overly simplified, so I will leave Byron to figure this stuff out and explain it better.